WHAT A MESS!

It has been many days since I wrote anything in my blog.

The truth is, probably like many others, I have been trying to make some sense of what is happening in the country. Clearly the political situation has not quite settled down yet despite the dizzying roller-coaster immediate post-elections phase we just went through. I honestly wonder what the final scenario would be like. I wonder if this new “uncertain” political climate would be a permanent feature. I wonder if the country would end up better off or less so. I wonder if, as a citizen, I should actually be somewhat concerned and perhaps even feel a little afraid!

Probably like many others too, I just don’t know what to make of it all. There are just too many seeming loose ends, sudden turns, delayed response, new demands, surprise moves, unexpected bumps, and rabid speculations. Suddenly we have so many strident voices, interest groups, and power brokers, each with very strong and telling leverage. And there are also some obvious and deep-seated biases and animosities in between some significant key players and factions to further add to the complications.

All these elements tugging in different directions need to be accommodated by the ruling party and the government within the overall game-plan, whatever that is. This is the key to the speedy and positive resolution of the protracted uncertain climate – an overall game-plan executed with statesmanship-like skill and adroitness. This is what is now needed for the healing process. This is what is now needed of the person who is overall in-charge, the incumbent Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister has to provide the needed strategic maneuvering, firm leadership, and statesmanship-like skill untrammeled by any considerations other than the pure interest of the nation and its people within legal and ethical framework – and nothing else. And only he can develop the game-plan for this. Does he have one? Judging by the several about turns, recycled decisions, blatant rebuffs, and thwarted moves he had to submit to recently, it appears as if he does not; at least not a reassuringly reliable one! So far we have neither seen the “statesman-like skill and adroitness” nor the overall “game-plan” coming from him.

To recap the run-up to the general elections, the BN clearly was not able to read the electorate’s sentiments despite the machinery at its disposal. Right up to the polling day, the BN was unaware of the real situations on the ground and the catastrophe waiting. How could something so vigourously speculated by the numerous “teh-tarik stall pundits and panelists” not be effectively captured by the BN’s sophisticated intelligence machinery?

The BN lost five states to the opposition, while at the Federal level it limped home on a Sabah-Sarawak crutch with a hitherto unheard of simple majority – a scenario entirely unthinkable for the BN in its entire history! Pak Lah, the BN Supremo, repeatedly said he was “in charge” but without taking responsibility through any proffered gesture of atonement – not even the most hesitant. In fact the “man-in-charge” kept stoically harping on his party’s “strong majority”; in his words “just eight shy of two-thirds”. How it is possible that the “man-in-charge” can see the same thing so differently from the rest of the country? Or could it be, like Nero, he was busy fiddling?

Then came the cabinet announcement – a team put together to accommodate the many considerations, although seemingly uppermost was ensuring that some trusted stalwarts of the party leader were elevated to this supreme executive grouping. Clearly, it would also seem there was no prior tentative sounding or consultations with other component party leaders or key supporters in naming the cabinet, resulting in several immediate resignations of the appointees, and a growing undercurrent of unhappiness in several quarters.

Soon after, Mukhriz, Tun Mahathir’s son and an UMNO youth committee member, wrote a letter to Pak Lah asking him to resign for the party’s disastrous showing at the general elections. While this action was taken in a purely personal capacity, it was obviously not done in total isolation. Clearly, Mukhriz must have made his calculations, and very likely had some substantial number of party members backing him. After formally reviewing what he did, the UMNO youth decided not to take any action against him. This was certainly a far cry from the party members’ punitive belligerence against the slightest aspersion towards their leader during the Tun Mahathir bashing period! Perhaps the writing on the wall was becoming clearer.

In the meantime the appointments of the Menteri Besar for Perlis and Trengganu ran into unexpected opposition from the respective rulers. Despite the initial firm position of the party leadership in naming its party appointees to the posts, in each case the decision was reversed and a different candidate was appointed. What were the reasons for the sudden ready acceptance of the revised arrangement (especially in the case of Trengganu) when the party leadership’s every pronouncement and every move strongly emphasized its position as legally correct and proper right up to the palace gate? What had caused the sudden capitulation? Would this unchallenged outcome serve to mire the roles of party and palace? Would it actually create a dangerous and uncertain precedent?

On the heels of these disconcerting happenings, a growing unhappiness is surfacing in Sabah, and to a lesser degree in Sarawak, over the allocation of ministerial posts to the two states. And the thinly veiled threat of the opposition to “win over a sufficient number of elected representatives from the two states” roundly serves to make this unhappiness a “potentially fatal challenge” to the BN government. If not immediately and satisfactorily handled BN may no longer even have a Federal government to lead... ... Why was the leadership so callous when naming its cabinet that this factor was not properly given its due emphasis?

Another respected senior party member, Tengku Razaleigh, recently announced his readiness to vie for the party President’ post in order to “save the party” – a clear vote of no confidence in Pak Lah’s continued leadership. Can he muster the needed 58 nominations to challenge the President? At last count, it is rumoured, he has already secured 60! Should he indeed be able to challenge Pak Lah, my guess is that Ku Li would pull through. If Najib, at that point, decides to join the fray and make it a three cornered fight, I think he just might be the winner. Then again who knows what he is really thinking given the very sensitive and difficult position he is in.

Against this backdrop and a growing restlessness among party members and concerned citizens, the former Prime Minister, Tun Mahathir, continued to call for Pak Lah to take responsibility for the BN disastrous performance at the general elections and step down. It is understood that Tun Mahathir is now embarking on a state-by-state call starting with Selangor, Kelantan, and Johore. Assuming this effort was sincerely motivated and made in the interest of the nation, it could still be a totally wasted effort. Going by Pak Lah’s recent past tendency, it would seem more likely that he would dig in his heels against Tun Mahathir’s every wish and advice, no matter if they make sense!

While stridently calling for Pak Lah’s resignation Tun Mahathir also decided to change his mind about his support for Najib to succeed Pak Lah. In the latest development he seemed to think the decision as to who is best to succeed Pak Lah should be left to the party; and the person could be Najib, Ku Li, or Muhyiddin. Why this sudden about turn? Has he found out something about Najib he didn’t know before? Or was it simply a rebuff for Najib’s silence and almost robot-like support for Pak Lah? Or could it be a belated gesture to ease the awkward tension he had created for Najib vis a vis Pak Lah as a result of his undisguised flattering support for Najib and his brutal criticisms of Pak Lah up to now? Who knows!

Amidst all these, the just-appointed minister in charge of “Law” has called for an apology for a twenty year old purported “wrong”. Whatever the merit of this suggestion – moral, legal, or personal – without doubt there will be very strong proponents on both sides of the divide. Without doubt too this sudden “revisit” proposal will create fresh debates and tensions anew. Even if the proposal is sincere and necessary, the timing is certainly lousy. But then who knows what mandate and priorities had actually been given to this hand-picked minister from Kelantan who did not even have to risk contesting the general elections? Perhaps it could even be a part of the yet unseen game-plan.

And there are still many other simmering issues!

The real concern for me is that there seems to be no indication of a clear and credible plan to get the country out of this uncertain political climate. UMNO, the backbone of BN seems to be in abject limbo with no clear direction within it’s heavily factionalised following. Getting UMNO on a firm footing with clear strategic directions and fully aligned behind one clearly accepted and acknowledged leader is the needed first step. Simultaneously, a comprehensive plan to lead the country back to a more settled climate would need to be developed and executed with the earlier mentioned “statesman-like skill and adroitness”.

It will be a long and difficult road back to its pre-2008 general elections pre-eminence and political stability for the BN, and by extension, in the medium term, the country. And Pak Lah has not demonstrated in any way the ability to manage the very difficult leadership role needed to navigate the BN ship out of its troubles – troubles many actually attribute to his doing in the first place.

Too many party members have taken too many opposing positions and said too many intractable words creating severely polarised interest groups within the party, making it difficult for members to genuinely close ranks under the current status-quo. A change in leadership is needed to offer a better chance for realignment within the party. This is the unfortunate reality of the current UMNO situation – and however painful, the issues of personalities, personal interests, pride and preferences will need to be forced aside.

If Pak Lah can bring himself to be totally objective in appraising this current situation he would see that he is already too mired and severely handicapped to effectively continue with any effort to shore up BN’s ignominious slide and to redeem its lost standing and pride. The best thing he can do for UMNO, BN, and the country is to step down and let someone else somewhat less central to the present problems try his hands at salvaging the situation and getting out of this mess!

THE NEW CABINET - HOW GOOD IS IT?

"The new cabinet line-up is good". Or so I had thought upon it being announced, although there were a few immediate question marks.

Why were those not chosen to stand for elections brought into the cabinet? While this makes perfect sense in the case of “technocrats”, it is a real puzzle in the case of full time politicians. Even if the candidates well merit the appointments, the process made it seem like a sudden about-turn somewhere along the line, making one wonder if the whole planning and selection basis for both the elections and cabinet formation had been well planned and fully thought through.

Why was Tan Sri Mohamad Taib included in the cabinet? Although a giant of an UMNO stalwart no doubt, he is also someone who had had his share of adverse publicities and controversies, even well beyond the country’s borders. He cannot be that indispensable to the new cabinet (no one is, including Pak Lah) that he had to be included despite the risk of the stigma of his unfortunate past controversies. His services could have been used and recognised in some other less than such an obvious and almost “I don’t give a damn what the people may say” manner.

Why is it necessary to have an Advisor (of ministerial status) for the Women, Family and Community Development Ministry? How will this “Advisor with ministerial status” operate? Given that the named Advisor, Dato’ Sri Sharizat, was the previous minister in this ministry, her appointment will most likely make it very awkward for Dato’ Dr Ng Yen Yen as a first-time full minister – and might create unnecessary conjectures on the reasons for this unprecedented move, including the trust in Dato’ Ng to do a “fair” job particularly in the area of “race interests”. Is it fair to Dato' Ng? Or is this simply a back-door ministerial appointment to salvage a much regretted “innocent casualty” of the general elections while bypassing the so loudly brandished ruling of “no losing candidate to be appointed”?

These are a few of the more obvious question marks. Then there are perhaps the less obvious, which would probably become more apparent as the days go by.

I sense that apart from the so-called “balance”, “integrity”, “lean” and “giving what the people want” considerations, one other element strongly influencing the selection of the cabinet was the “personal loyalty and trust” consideration. But then perhaps this is only to be expected, especially under the present circumstances when the services of the “Hang Tuahs” might be needed. The problem I see though is that not all the “Hang Tuahs” could be included and satisfied. And those left out, especially those who worked so hard for the general elections and felt they had defended the leadership strongly during some difficult times might feel abandoned – and there’s no telling what they might do.

The other likely problem source is the recognition of the contributions of Sabah and Sarawak in the recent general elections. I sense this cabinet line-up might not be seen as sufficient recognition by the two states, although Tan Sri Taib Mahmood might be satisfied especially when his son was made deputy minister. As for the rest – even Dato’ Shafie Apdal might be seen as having been moved to a lesser ministry. What about the very high representation from Johore? And what about the under-representation of Wanita UMNO? Let's not forget they make up more than 50% of UMNO membership!

Thus, while the new cabinet might seem tentatively "lean and mean" and make us somewhat hopeful, its formation might actually cause some complications for the BN. In the worst case scenario it could trigger a further downward spiral of the BN into uncharted territories. If this were to happen, no BN cabinet could really be effective.

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So, in the final analysis, what do I think of the new cabinet? What a mess!

SARIKEI REVISITED

I just realized that my last many postings have all been related to the recent general elections. I really should try to take my mind off that even if the debris in its aftermath have not settled down, and are not showing any sign they will any time soon, making the post-general elections scenario somewhat uncertain. But, enough, no more general elections talk for this posting …

At some late stage when friends get together to reminisce, often we hear laments of how “children today are not like when we were children” or “the present students are no longer the same as when we were students” or “today’s generation is so unlike ours” or “how very different the place was then” or “things are not what they used to be”, and many, many more!

All, of course, are true. After all everything changes and with time everything becomes a little, if not altogether different. The thing about the past, though, is that everything always seems to be better and nicer compared to today; and seemingly the farther back the more so. Somehow things of the distant past seem to exude such magic making them seem so appealing and interesting – well, mostly.

Perhaps this appeal of the past has really little to do with the present. Perhaps the mind has a way of filtering out the negative emotions retaining only the beautiful memories and warm nostalgia, magnified over time making the past more attractive than it actually was. Perhaps too, the increasing blank spots would need to be filled to create recall – and filling them with joyous emotions is probably the most logical thing for the mind to do.

I think that was what happened to me some weeks back when I visited Sarikei after so long. Today, the town is four times bigger, the shops better stocked and freshly painted, and the decrepit police station I knew is now a modern beautiful building with its entrance now facing the river. The river-front itself has been nicely spruced up with partial embankment and rows of palm trees, and no longer just a dangerous untidy steep bank plunging into the swirling yellow water. All the roads are well surfaced, very different from the narrow potholed and dusty stretches they once were; and there are no more stray dogs running loose in the streets – and the public toilets are clean.

All in all Sarikei has been transformed into a beautiful, thriving, and really neat town that is way better than the one I knew and briefly lived in a long time back. Yet as I stood there looking at the neat empty lot where the mess once stood, I actually longed for the old Sarikei!

By the way, the BN won in Sarikei – but by a mere whisker of a majority of just over 50 votes or so! This can mean trouble for the BN the next time around. I wonder how many spoilt votes there were… ... oops!

"TAKING RESPONSIBILITY"

What is “taking responsibility”?

The overall credit for success or the overall blame for failure goes to the one with the overall responsibility. In success, this is the person who receives the accolades. The rest of the organisation can only directly take credit for the specific individual, unit, or sub-unit responsibilities. Similarly, in the case of a reversal, the overall blame must remain with the overall leader and decision maker, the person who is overall in charge; the Supremo. The leader cannot bask in the glory of success and reap the accolades but decline the needed atonement in failure!

That is what “taking responsibility” involves – or at least a big underlying part of it.

Tan Sri Dr. Koh Soo Koon, who himself lost the elections, had offered to resign as Acting President of Gerakan, although the offer was subsequently rejected by the Party. Dato’ Sri Ong Kah Ting, who actually managed to win his seat although his party was thoroughly decimated, had declined to be appointed to the new Cabinet in order to focus on strengthening the MCA – and in atonement for the poor showing of the party he leads.

In both cases, the party presidents clearly demonstrated their readiness to “take responsibility” and to atone for the overall poor showing of their respective parties.

Dato’ Seri Samyvellu and Dato’ Keyveas seem unlikely to do anything of the sort. Keyveas, in fact, having lost Taiping and having caused much irritations and dissensions within not a few component parties on the road to securing the Taiping nomination, I understand, is even eyeing a cabinet post, the senator route. How totally different and wide-ranging the responses are between the four BN component party leaders in reaction to virtually the exact same reversal – from offering to resign the party leadership to eyeing a promotion!

And what about the response of the leader of the most senior BN component party, UMNO – the one who is overall in charge, the supremo of both UMNO and BN, the one person who is supposed to set the example for the rest of the component parties and indeed the whole nation itself, of what is correct and ethical conduct?

Certainly he has repeatedly said he is "in charge"! So, what can I say? Perhaps the full drama is yet to unfold, but as of now it certainly does not look like Pak Lah is ready to, in any way, atone for the BN disaster which, by the way, he has not actually recognized as such, preferring to term the BN performance over the week-end as “still having secured a good majority”.

If I were to compare his response to those of the four BN component party leaders above, it would seem he has chosen to go the Samyvellu way. He has not offered to resign either his party or government post like Koh Soo Koon or Ong Kah Ting – and he cannot possibly go the Keyveas way since, unlike the Keyveas case, there is no higher position than the Prime Minister!

PETRONAS TO FUND SECOND PENANG BRIDGE?

If the new Penang Chief Minister’s first press statement immediately after taking office is any indication of what is to come, perhaps we should be worried – at least mildly for now.

Among other things, he asked the Federal Government to ensure that the construction of the second Penang Bridge proceeds as planned and that PETRONAS could fund the project.

The piling work on the mainland side is already in progress. That’s how advance the project is – already way beyond the financing planning phase. So what was the PETRONAS bit all about? Was it an early try at taking an oblique swipe at PETRONAS to draw it into some future topic for debate or what? What connection is there between the second bridge and PETRONAS?

Was he simply ignorant (after all he is from Melaka and not Penang) of the status of this project and was merely and sincerely proposing a way out for the Federal Government? Or was there some mischief intended?

Perhaps it is too early to tell with one press conference – still, at best, it could just be pure ignorance, or perhaps well-intentioned but very poorly considered try at advising the Federal Government. Neither is reassuring!

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As for his comments on the NEP, let's first see where he's planning to take it...

THE REMBAU SLEIGHT-OF-HAND

I didn’t actually see it but I’m told by those who did, that Khairy Jamaluddin had actually conceded defeat in the Rembau elections, on TV, only to be officially declared the winner some 25 minutes later.

How could this happen? More perplexing still – why is there not even a single chirp up to now from any quarter? Why is there not even a query over this, to say the very least, unbelievably strange episode – and to happen to none other than one who is arguably the next-most central figure in the BN’s week-end disaster? Could there be a much wider conspiracy actually in play involving even the opposition that they should so accommodatingly accept this “sleight-of-hand” show by this young upstart and his team, and whoever else involved?

What is happening? I thought only Pak Lah had been put under this young man’s spell, but now it would seem that the whole country is totally hypnotized by this “anointed son-in-law and his associates” that no one, not even the opposition, would challenge this ridiculous wayang kulit. Surely we are all not this dumb!

Even if the whole very strange episode was indeed a genuine error (although logic tells us the probability of it happening to this particular person in such circumstances is extremely unlikely) we, the electorate, deserve some explanation.

BEING ETHICAL IS MORE THAN JUST BEING LEGALLY CORRECT

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Yesterday, 8th March 2008, was polling day.

Unlike any previous elections this one had left in its wake many in a state of shock. The outcome was seemingly so unexpected that it surprised everyone – those from the ruling coalition did not expect to do so miserably while the opposition parties, despite their claims, probably did not think they could have done that well.

However, come to think of it, the trio I overheard discussing the elections at the teh tarik stall under the ketapang tree at Medan Tuanku some days earlier had actually speculated on the possibility of such a result (previous posting). Perhaps, unlike the main political protagonists who were thoroughly absorbed in their things and guided by their own many surveys, the man in the street might have had some inkling of the possibility of such an outcome after all. Even the stock market began trending down before the week-end!

The elections had now come and gone. Over the last 24 hours I must have endlessly listened to half a dozen panel discussions and analysis on the subject since the election results started coming in early yesterday evening.

I thought the discussions were, firstly, too academic and repetitive. Secondly, everyone seemed to be tip-toeing around the real issues as seen on the ground – the sins of the BN in general, and the perceived weakness of its leadership (the top-most and those he had surrounded himself with). The outcome of the elections was more a rejection of the BN rather than support for the opposition – a rejection triggered by loss of trust, respect and confidence in the BN leadership and unhappiness and disgust with the performance of the ruling party since the electorate’s high hopes of 2004.

In many constituencies the spoilt votes were more than the majority won, representing perhaps disillusioned supporters denying their support but yet not willing to endorse the opposition outright. Similarly the low turn-out in many areas, some in the low 50plus percent, could also represent the “abstaining” supporters. Clearly the rejection of the BN was not so much because of any real preference, love, or affections for the opposition or any real hope and trust in them, but more because of the unhappiness and in many cases disgust for the ruling party!

How else could we possibly explain what happened? Unlike political party members the majority non-party independent voters (who were responsible for the massive swing) could not possibly vote in concert in the absence of an obvious and shared cause – a cause that must be triggered by commonly perceived, serious, and unacceptable major failings. Only such a phenomenon can create the degree of emotional alignment within millions of independent voters to achieve such a concerted swing.

Clearly the general elections over the week-end was not just a loss for the BN. In many ways and possibly in many cases, it was also a loss for the electorate. It was probably a very difficult choice and a sacrifice for many among them. Some felt forced to vote against their better judgment because of loyalty; some voted with their heads to make a statement and did what was perceived at this point of time as a “painful necessity” despite the warring conscience. And many even decided to abandon their voting right and stayed home!

What happens next would be interesting to see.

Dr Koh Soo Koon, the hard-working and very able former Chief Minister of Penang, and Acting Party President of Gerakan, had taken full responsibility for the state defeat and had indicated his readiness to resign from the post of Acting Party President. This is the expected conduct of a responsible and ethical leader. Samyvellu, it seemed, had not at all even considered resigning; neither had Keyveas; or Ong Kah Ting – and neither had Pak Lah, the key and central figure in the eye of the BN debacle.

Legally of course they do not have to resign unless told to do so by the party – and our political parties are so cowed by the leadership there is small hope in that. But then what is ethical is not just what is legally correct. And although we have to accept that everyone might have different standards for what is ethical and acceptable, we expect our leaders in high positions to also subscribe to high ethics. Perhaps the Rakyat might again have to voice their common take on this!

Whatever happened and whatever the fall-out of the 2008 general elections, I sincerely hope the lessons that came with it would not be wasted. Sadly though, judging by the words and tone of several BN leaders immediately after the results were known, it would seem as if the lessons had not as yet been recognised, or acknowledged.

Perhaps they just need some space to grieve first!