WHAT A MESS!

It has been many days since I wrote anything in my blog.

The truth is, probably like many others, I have been trying to make some sense of what is happening in the country. Clearly the political situation has not quite settled down yet despite the dizzying roller-coaster immediate post-elections phase we just went through. I honestly wonder what the final scenario would be like. I wonder if this new “uncertain” political climate would be a permanent feature. I wonder if the country would end up better off or less so. I wonder if, as a citizen, I should actually be somewhat concerned and perhaps even feel a little afraid!

Probably like many others too, I just don’t know what to make of it all. There are just too many seeming loose ends, sudden turns, delayed response, new demands, surprise moves, unexpected bumps, and rabid speculations. Suddenly we have so many strident voices, interest groups, and power brokers, each with very strong and telling leverage. And there are also some obvious and deep-seated biases and animosities in between some significant key players and factions to further add to the complications.

All these elements tugging in different directions need to be accommodated by the ruling party and the government within the overall game-plan, whatever that is. This is the key to the speedy and positive resolution of the protracted uncertain climate – an overall game-plan executed with statesmanship-like skill and adroitness. This is what is now needed for the healing process. This is what is now needed of the person who is overall in-charge, the incumbent Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister has to provide the needed strategic maneuvering, firm leadership, and statesmanship-like skill untrammeled by any considerations other than the pure interest of the nation and its people within legal and ethical framework – and nothing else. And only he can develop the game-plan for this. Does he have one? Judging by the several about turns, recycled decisions, blatant rebuffs, and thwarted moves he had to submit to recently, it appears as if he does not; at least not a reassuringly reliable one! So far we have neither seen the “statesman-like skill and adroitness” nor the overall “game-plan” coming from him.

To recap the run-up to the general elections, the BN clearly was not able to read the electorate’s sentiments despite the machinery at its disposal. Right up to the polling day, the BN was unaware of the real situations on the ground and the catastrophe waiting. How could something so vigourously speculated by the numerous “teh-tarik stall pundits and panelists” not be effectively captured by the BN’s sophisticated intelligence machinery?

The BN lost five states to the opposition, while at the Federal level it limped home on a Sabah-Sarawak crutch with a hitherto unheard of simple majority – a scenario entirely unthinkable for the BN in its entire history! Pak Lah, the BN Supremo, repeatedly said he was “in charge” but without taking responsibility through any proffered gesture of atonement – not even the most hesitant. In fact the “man-in-charge” kept stoically harping on his party’s “strong majority”; in his words “just eight shy of two-thirds”. How it is possible that the “man-in-charge” can see the same thing so differently from the rest of the country? Or could it be, like Nero, he was busy fiddling?

Then came the cabinet announcement – a team put together to accommodate the many considerations, although seemingly uppermost was ensuring that some trusted stalwarts of the party leader were elevated to this supreme executive grouping. Clearly, it would also seem there was no prior tentative sounding or consultations with other component party leaders or key supporters in naming the cabinet, resulting in several immediate resignations of the appointees, and a growing undercurrent of unhappiness in several quarters.

Soon after, Mukhriz, Tun Mahathir’s son and an UMNO youth committee member, wrote a letter to Pak Lah asking him to resign for the party’s disastrous showing at the general elections. While this action was taken in a purely personal capacity, it was obviously not done in total isolation. Clearly, Mukhriz must have made his calculations, and very likely had some substantial number of party members backing him. After formally reviewing what he did, the UMNO youth decided not to take any action against him. This was certainly a far cry from the party members’ punitive belligerence against the slightest aspersion towards their leader during the Tun Mahathir bashing period! Perhaps the writing on the wall was becoming clearer.

In the meantime the appointments of the Menteri Besar for Perlis and Trengganu ran into unexpected opposition from the respective rulers. Despite the initial firm position of the party leadership in naming its party appointees to the posts, in each case the decision was reversed and a different candidate was appointed. What were the reasons for the sudden ready acceptance of the revised arrangement (especially in the case of Trengganu) when the party leadership’s every pronouncement and every move strongly emphasized its position as legally correct and proper right up to the palace gate? What had caused the sudden capitulation? Would this unchallenged outcome serve to mire the roles of party and palace? Would it actually create a dangerous and uncertain precedent?

On the heels of these disconcerting happenings, a growing unhappiness is surfacing in Sabah, and to a lesser degree in Sarawak, over the allocation of ministerial posts to the two states. And the thinly veiled threat of the opposition to “win over a sufficient number of elected representatives from the two states” roundly serves to make this unhappiness a “potentially fatal challenge” to the BN government. If not immediately and satisfactorily handled BN may no longer even have a Federal government to lead... ... Why was the leadership so callous when naming its cabinet that this factor was not properly given its due emphasis?

Another respected senior party member, Tengku Razaleigh, recently announced his readiness to vie for the party President’ post in order to “save the party” – a clear vote of no confidence in Pak Lah’s continued leadership. Can he muster the needed 58 nominations to challenge the President? At last count, it is rumoured, he has already secured 60! Should he indeed be able to challenge Pak Lah, my guess is that Ku Li would pull through. If Najib, at that point, decides to join the fray and make it a three cornered fight, I think he just might be the winner. Then again who knows what he is really thinking given the very sensitive and difficult position he is in.

Against this backdrop and a growing restlessness among party members and concerned citizens, the former Prime Minister, Tun Mahathir, continued to call for Pak Lah to take responsibility for the BN disastrous performance at the general elections and step down. It is understood that Tun Mahathir is now embarking on a state-by-state call starting with Selangor, Kelantan, and Johore. Assuming this effort was sincerely motivated and made in the interest of the nation, it could still be a totally wasted effort. Going by Pak Lah’s recent past tendency, it would seem more likely that he would dig in his heels against Tun Mahathir’s every wish and advice, no matter if they make sense!

While stridently calling for Pak Lah’s resignation Tun Mahathir also decided to change his mind about his support for Najib to succeed Pak Lah. In the latest development he seemed to think the decision as to who is best to succeed Pak Lah should be left to the party; and the person could be Najib, Ku Li, or Muhyiddin. Why this sudden about turn? Has he found out something about Najib he didn’t know before? Or was it simply a rebuff for Najib’s silence and almost robot-like support for Pak Lah? Or could it be a belated gesture to ease the awkward tension he had created for Najib vis a vis Pak Lah as a result of his undisguised flattering support for Najib and his brutal criticisms of Pak Lah up to now? Who knows!

Amidst all these, the just-appointed minister in charge of “Law” has called for an apology for a twenty year old purported “wrong”. Whatever the merit of this suggestion – moral, legal, or personal – without doubt there will be very strong proponents on both sides of the divide. Without doubt too this sudden “revisit” proposal will create fresh debates and tensions anew. Even if the proposal is sincere and necessary, the timing is certainly lousy. But then who knows what mandate and priorities had actually been given to this hand-picked minister from Kelantan who did not even have to risk contesting the general elections? Perhaps it could even be a part of the yet unseen game-plan.

And there are still many other simmering issues!

The real concern for me is that there seems to be no indication of a clear and credible plan to get the country out of this uncertain political climate. UMNO, the backbone of BN seems to be in abject limbo with no clear direction within it’s heavily factionalised following. Getting UMNO on a firm footing with clear strategic directions and fully aligned behind one clearly accepted and acknowledged leader is the needed first step. Simultaneously, a comprehensive plan to lead the country back to a more settled climate would need to be developed and executed with the earlier mentioned “statesman-like skill and adroitness”.

It will be a long and difficult road back to its pre-2008 general elections pre-eminence and political stability for the BN, and by extension, in the medium term, the country. And Pak Lah has not demonstrated in any way the ability to manage the very difficult leadership role needed to navigate the BN ship out of its troubles – troubles many actually attribute to his doing in the first place.

Too many party members have taken too many opposing positions and said too many intractable words creating severely polarised interest groups within the party, making it difficult for members to genuinely close ranks under the current status-quo. A change in leadership is needed to offer a better chance for realignment within the party. This is the unfortunate reality of the current UMNO situation – and however painful, the issues of personalities, personal interests, pride and preferences will need to be forced aside.

If Pak Lah can bring himself to be totally objective in appraising this current situation he would see that he is already too mired and severely handicapped to effectively continue with any effort to shore up BN’s ignominious slide and to redeem its lost standing and pride. The best thing he can do for UMNO, BN, and the country is to step down and let someone else somewhat less central to the present problems try his hands at salvaging the situation and getting out of this mess!